Universal’s highly anticipated film adaptation of the Broadway hit Wicked has made a sensational entrance into the global market, projecting a staggering $165 million in earnings through this Sunday. The film’s premiere is particularly notable in North America, where it is expected to rake in approximately $117 million, complemented by an estimated $48 million from international markets. This unprecedented opening weekend positions Wicked as the most substantial debut for any film inspired by a Broadway musical, surpassing the previous record held by Les Misérables, which opened with $103 million. Wicked’s achievement marks an impressive milestone in the film industry, establishing it as the fourth-largest global opening for a musical, right behind Disney’s The Little Mermaid, which had a $163.6 million debut.
Despite only being released in 61 international markets, representing 65% of its potential offshore footprint, Wicked’s performance has been remarkable. Notably, significant markets such as France, China, Germany, and Japan have yet to screen the film. However, in comparison with similar openings in like-for-like markets, Wicked is poised to outperform all Broadway adaptations, solidifying its place at the top. The expected $48 million international earnings also rank it as the sixth-largest opening weekend for a musical in overseas markets, surpassing Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, which earned $43 million.
The film’s performance reflects a growing appetite for musicals in cinema, especially in markets known for their strong theatrical performances. In particular, the UK has seemingly embraced Wicked with open arms, predicted to generate over $15 million through its opening weekend. Following its launch in the UK and Ireland, Wicked reported an astonishing $4.9 million on its opening day alone across 2,250 screens, capturing an impressive 63% share of the total box office. The film’s opening day ranks as the second-biggest of 2024, trailing only behind Deadpool & Wolverine, and marks Universal’s most successful launch since No Time to Die in September 2021.
Tim Richards, CEO of Vue, expressed excitement surrounding the film, noting that its record-breaking pre-sales were “tracking in line with Barbie’s last year.” The anticipation for Wicked is palpable, illustrating a significant shift in viewership toward musicals, a genre that has long been celebrated on stage but struggled to captivate the same audience in film formats. This renewed interest could have lasting effects on the film industry, encouraging further adaptations of stage musicals that are likely to gather both nostalgic audiences and new fans.
Moreover, Wicked’s launch has garnered a strong performance in various territories. In Australia, it broke records with the third-largest opening day of 2024 on Thursday. Similarly, South Korea showcased its affinity for musicals with Wicked grossing $3.3 million by Saturday, alongside a remarkable 94% CGV Egg score. Mexico also joined the list of countries showcasing Wicked’s allure, recording the biggest opening day ever for a stage musical adaptation, and standing as the clear box office leader.
The significant earnings from Wicked pose important questions regarding the potential for future adaptations of beloved stage productions. With a successful opening that eclipses many predecessors, the film industry may be encouraged to invest in more adaptations of theatrical works. In light of Wicked’s success and the ongoing presence of competitors like Paramount’s Gladiator II, which began its international rollout last weekend, the landscape of film adaptations may be shifting dramatically.
As more audiences flock to theatres and demonstrate a renewed interest in musical films, it seems we may be on the brink of a resurgence in musical cinema. The success of Wicked not only shines a light on the power of Broadway but also indicates a new trend in audience preferences. As the world of cinema evolves, Wicked’s thrilling debut could mark the beginning of an exciting era for musicals on the big screen.