As the highly anticipated film adaptation of the beloved stage musical “Wicked” approaches its release date on November 22, early signs point to a blockbuster opening. With its advance ticket sales already ranking as the second-best on Fandango for 2023, trailing only behind the superhero amalgamation of “Deadpool” and “Wolverine,” the excitement is palpable. This metric serves as an intriguing precursor to understanding how the film might fare commercially once it hits theaters.
When evaluating the impressive first-day ticket sales of “Wicked,” it is crucial to juxtapose its performance with that of previous cinematic successes. For instance, “Deadpool” achieved a staggering first-day total of $96.1 million, contributing to a jaw-dropping three-day weekend tally of $211.4 million. “Wicked,” although poised for greatness, still faces the formidable challenge of living up to such blockbuster benchmarks. Despite this, it is noteworthy that “Wicked” ranks as the best PG-rated pre-seller for 2024 thus far, securing the third position among PG-rated films in terms of first-day ticket sales history. Only Disney’s “Frozen II” and the 2019 adaptation of “The Lion King” have performed better, setting a high bar for future releases.
Strategic Release Timing
The strategic timing of the release cannot be overlooked. Universal has chosen to release “Wicked” the Friday before Thanksgiving, breaking away from an earlier plan that would have placed it head-to-head against Disney’s “Moana 2.” By rescheduling to avoid direct competition with this family blockbuster, Universal may be positioning “Wicked” for maximum audience capture during the busy holiday weekend. This pivot towards a later opening aligns it with Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” a decision met with mixed expectations but characterized by the hope that it could spark a resurgence similar to the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon experienced earlier this year.
Positive Indicators Amid Caution
While the current enthusiasm surrounding presales indicates strong public interest, industry veterans exercise caution in interpreting these figures as definitive indicators of box office success. Historical trends remind us that presales can sometimes mislead projections. For example, while some films, like “Joker: Folie à Deux,” have seen disappointing presales compared to their predecessors, others such as “Terrifier 3” have shown promising indicators with expectations of an $11 million opening. As the industry recuperates from recent strikes and embraces new releases, the integrity of presale data has gained traction as a more reliable reflection of audience sentiment.
The palpable anticipation for “Wicked” is echoed by marketing and industry experts alike. “Fan anticipation for the cinematic masterpiece ‘Wicked’ is incredibly high for what is set to be a one-of-a-kind must-see theatrical event,” notes Jerramy Hainline, EVP of Fandango Ticketing. This sentiment resonates strongly, suggesting an eagerness that could significantly influence box office receipts. As the release date nears, the combined factors of strategic marketing, competitive positioning, and strong pre-sale patterns may well lead “Wicked” to a successful opening weekend, further solidifying its place in cinematic history.
By carefully analyzing these elements, one can remain optimistic about “Wicked’s” impending box office performance while recognizing the unpredictability inherent in the film industry.